TR 50 - Wildlife and Fish Use Assessment: Long-Run Forecasts of Participation in Fishing, Hunting and Nonconsumptive Wildlife Recreation, R.G. Walsh, D.A. Harpman, K.H. John, J.R. McKean, and L. LeCroy, December 1987

A logit model is used to estimate the proportion of the population of the U.S. who participate in (1) nonconsumptive wildlife recreation trips; (2) fishing for cold water and warm water species; and (3) hunting big game, small game, and migratory birds in 1980. The logit equations are then used to forecast the number of persons who are likely to participate in these activities from 1990 to 2040. Indications are that nonconsumptive wildlife recreation will be the fastest growing activity. The historic growth in fishing is expected to continue, although at somewhat lower levels owing to slower increases in population. The study replicates previous research with respect to specific indicators of resource quality and availability. It attempts to correct a bias introduced into previous participation functions caused by the omission of price and cross-price variables. It presents a tentative empirical test of the effect of variable travel costs or miles traveled on the probability of participation in these activities, based on a comparison of with and without forecasts.